The “Boris Bounce” in the Property Market Fails to Deliver: New Research Shows Decline in Prices

The so-called “Boris bounce” in the property market after the last general election has been found to have fallen short of expectations, according to new research.

The phrase was coined to describe a surge in UK house sales following Boris Johnson and the Conservatives’ victory in the December 2019 election. In the three months leading up to the election, house prices increased by 4.2 per cent across the UK. However, in the three months following the election, the price rise was only 0.7 per cent, with prime central London actually experiencing a 9.4 per cent decline in prices, as reported by estate agents Winkworth.

A study commissioned by Winkworth and conducted by analysts Dataloft, using Land Registry figures, looked at price changes before and after general elections since May 1997. The research found that in most cases, pre-election uncertainty led to a short-term impact, slowing the number of sales in the months leading up to voting day. However, once the election results were known, the markets typically regained momentum due to increased certainty over political policies.

The report suggests that waiting to put a property on the market after an election with the hope of achieving a higher price could be a risky strategy. Winkworth’s chief executive Dominic Agace highlighted the historical impact of general elections on house prices, noting that the biggest growth occurred during Tony Blair’s time in power, contrary to popular belief about the Thatcher era.

As speculation swirls over when the next election will be called, the report also notes that it takes less time to sell a home in spring than in winter, with 27 per cent of sales over the past five years occurring in the spring season. The research suggests that while general elections may temporarily distract buyers and sellers, the overall impact on the property market may not be as significant as initially perceived.